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eli_sennesh comments on Einstein's Superpowers - Less Wrong
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Whaaa? Is this saying you think Einstein had substantially less than 1 in 100,000 general intelligence? That seems like a severe underestimate. 1 in 1e5 really isn't much, there should be 70,000 people in the world like that. There isn't a small city full of Einsteins. I've gotten back standardized test reports showing higher percentiles than that.
This reminds me of the time somebody asked me if I considered myself a genius and I asked them to define genius as a fraction of the population. "1 in 100,000? 1 in 1 million?" I inquired. And they said, "1 in 300" to which my reply was to just laugh.
Or am I reading it the wrong way around, i.e., Einstein is much above this level? If so, I wouldn't think more than a couple of orders of magnitude above, like 1 in 1,000,000 or 1 in 10,000,000. Other factors than native g will be decisive past that point.
You know well that raw intelligence doesn't predict success as much as good circumstances and a hell of a lot of work-ethic. Einstein's sum-total qualities may have been extremely rare, but I would never bet that he was just that neurologically different from the rest of us merely very smart people.