Eliezer: Good article. I always feel angry when I read some futurist's claim where there is no real scientific or bayesian basis for it, but because the futurist has some status this is put forth as the gospel. It's a social game, people posing as authorities when they didn't do their homework. Maybe we should apply the saying: "Shut up and calculate!"

PS: The same can be said for all kind of gurus in other fields as well.