Eliezer, Schank and Brooks and Norvig and all the distinguished authors at IEEE Spectrum all live in your era! They are writing now, now fifty years ago. You call them "formidable old warriors with hopelessly obsolete arms and armor", and say they do not "aspire to be careful in all realms including futurism."

I'm sure they are keeping up with some developments, and I'm sure they think they are trying to be careful. So it seems to come down to your thinking you know better than them all what are the really important developments and the real ways to be careful.