thomblake comments on The Rhythm of Disagreement - Less Wrong
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Assume the envelope contents are distributed arbitrarily on [A,+infinity) where A is some large number. Let f(x)=1/x (the values for x<1 don't matter). Then the expected benefit of Thrun's algorithm is always 1/4, even though the difference in f(x) between the values of any two envelopes is less than 1/A. To convince yourself of that, work out the proof yourself or run a computational experiment:
Replacing "3" with "10000" gets me varying results, mostly negative at a glance. What am I missing?
You're not missing anything, but the variance is quite high, you'll need many more samples. Or you could try writing a program that converges faster, I'm a total newbie at these things.