Re: "This confirms my general position that Eliezer is overconfident."

Best to have evidence of him being wrong - rather than just disagreements, then. I don't mean to boost his confidence - but Eliezer has views on many subjects, and while a few strike me as being a bit odd, he seems to me to be right a lot more than most people are. This may even be a consequence of his deliberate efforts to act like a rational agent.