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lavalamp comments on Timeless Identity - Less Wrong
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The situation isn't analogous, however. Let's posit that you're still alive when the simulation is ran. In fact, aside from technology there's no reason to put it in the future or involve an AI. I'm a brain scanning researcher that shows up at your house tomorrow, with all the equipment to do a non-destructive mind upload and whole-brain simulation. I tell you that I am going to scan your brain, start the simulation, then don VR goggles and go virtual-bowling with “you”. Once the scanning is done you and your husband are free to go to the beach or whatever, while I go bowling with TheVirtualDave.
What probability would you put on you ending up bowling instead of at the beach?
Prediction: TheOtherDave will say 50%, Beach!Dave and Bowling!Dave would both consider both to be the "original". Assuming sufficiently accurate scanning & simulating.
Here's what TheOtherDave actually said.
Yes, looks like that prediction is falsified. At least the first sentence. :)