lavalamp comments on Timeless Identity - Less Wrong
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Suppose that my husband and I believe that while we're sleeping, someone will paint a blue dot on either my forehead, or my husband's, determined randomly. We expect to see a blue dot when we wake up... and we also expect not to see a blue dot when we wake up. This is a perfectly reasonable state for two people to be in, and not at all problematic.
Suppose I believe that while I'm sleeping, a powerful AI will duplicate me (if you like, in such a way that both duplicates experience computational continuity with the original) and paint a blue dot on one duplicate's forehead. When I wake up, I expect to see a blue dot when I wake up... and I also expect not to see a blue dot when I wake up. This is a perfectly reasonable state for a duplicated person to be in, and not at all problematic.
Similarly, I both expect to experience bowling with you, and expect to not experience bowling with you (supposing that the original continues to operate while the simulation goes bowling).
The situation isn't analogous, however. Let's posit that you're still alive when the simulation is ran. In fact, aside from technology there's no reason to put it in the future or involve an AI. I'm a brain scanning researcher that shows up at your house tomorrow, with all the equipment to do a non-destructive mind upload and whole-brain simulation. I tell you that I am going to scan your brain, start the simulation, then don VR goggles and go virtual-bowling with “you”. Once the scanning is done you and your husband are free to go to the beach or whatever, while I go bowling with TheVirtualDave.
What probability would you put on you ending up bowling instead of at the beach?
Prediction: TheOtherDave will say 50%, Beach!Dave and Bowling!Dave would both consider both to be the "original". Assuming sufficiently accurate scanning & simulating.
Here's what TheOtherDave actually said.
Yes, looks like that prediction is falsified. At least the first sentence. :)