Robin: Obviously we should assign him the Bayesian level of trust in the future, taking into account this post and also your point. To me, that seems high enough to assign non-negligible, though still low, probabilities from the get-go to any claims he makes that wouldn't, without his endorsement, seem impossible in the "or the universe is a lie" sense, and even on claims which do so long as this seeming is accompanied by a substantial amount of noticed confusion.