Unknown: The relevant propositions are "Many Worlds is correct" and "this would be obvious except for historical contingency and ignorance among scientists of the proper application of probability theory". These propositions are carefully argued for. If you deduct subjective probability for people breaking their propositions down into careful arguments you will get wrong answers more often. Furthermore, Bayesian probability theory doesn't say to do it, just a naive misreading of Heuristics and Biases. I certainly don't expect Eliezer to be right in every case, and have argued against specific claims of his including the one you mention, that of evolution's speed limit. I'm glad you have learned things, I wasn't claiming that you did in fact cut yourself off from all new info, simply that you were currently using rhetorical tools that were sufficient to cut yourself off from any new piece of information you chose to.

Eliezer: I think that Aumann and certain bits of Heuristics and Biases are usually toxic to people. People who get Bayesianism should see Aumann as a trivial single step inference. People who are told it see it as a special surprising fact and mis-apply it, guessing its meaning from the name. Maybe we should talk about the "deliberative uncertainty principle" where you can't simultaneously predict your and his next statement in a conversation with an epistemic peer.