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Yvain comments on No, Really, I've Deceived Myself - Less Wrong
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Doesn't she receive a benefit by not having to live a lie her whole life? I've read deconversion stories, and they almost always include a point where someone has lost faith but tries to stay in their religious communities and go through the motions. Most of them end up miserable (granted that there is a 100% selection bias because these are deconversion stories)
Well, yes, there is a 100% selection bias here. I'm not sure I can count that as evidence, like, at all.
The intention was to provide a clarifying example of an existential statement that should be non-controversial ("There exist some people who are uncomfortable living a lie"), not to assert probabilistic evidence for a universal statement ("Everyone I have read about is uncomfortable living a lie, therefore this is true of all humans"). I noted the selection bias only to clarify that I am not making the stronger universal statement, but it doesn't interfere with the existential statement.
In human terms, or ideal Bayesian terms?