Knowledge is generally quantum in nature: there are many possible futures. Thus, Alice might believe Schrodinger's cat is alive, and Bob might believe it is dead. Such genuine disagreement can occur even in a purely deterministic Newtonian world where people have distinct bits of imperfect knowledge -- people can genuinely believe false things and have no way of knowing that they are false. Indeed, in many ways this is the normal state of knowledge, since by the pigeonhole principle no individual can host more than a tiny fraction of the world's data in his brain. Another reason for genuine disagreement is that people believe things that are true given the way they use words, but an opponent believes it is false given the way the opponent uses words. This kind of disagreement is one over description rather than over external reality.
Whether the disagreement is over semantics or external reality, both sides can have arguments in their favor, and arguments against, and it is often highly non-obvious how to reconcile the contraditions. People arrive closer to the truth by discussions in which it is understood that either side may be wrong.
Legal disputes follow the same "quantum" logic. We don't want to have cops go around shooting people just because they strongly believe they are guilty. Rather we go through a process that assumes that the party might be innocent or guilty -- much like a quantum state. Evidence is gathered and each side is allowed to put forward arguments in its favor, hopefully, the evidence causes ignorance to collapse, and a verdict can be more confidently reached.
In this world of uncertainty your opponent's argument can be as important as your own. An effective seeker after truth, as well as the effective advocate, understands counter-arguments, in order to discover the holes either in that argument or in one's own.
Michael Rose is thus quite right about this. If Richard Dawkins wants to debate creation or religion, he should be happy to exercise with "devil's advocate" arguments of his opponents. If he doesn't want to do that, he won't be an effective advocate and he's wasting his time. A dogmatic profession that "God does not exist" is almost competely uninformative -- we already know that millions of people are atheists.
(In fact, one of the beauties of Blind Watchmaker is that Dawkins understood and responded to creationist arguments, e.g. the watchmaker anaology, far better than other advocates of evolution, who usually neglected to explain the highly improbable design-like products of evolution. In the process he highlighted a crucial aspect of evolution, adaptation, that many others writing about evolution misleadingly downplayed, allowing creationists arguments based on accurate observations of the design-like nature of organisms to go unrebutted. Dawkins had to play plenty of devil's advocacy at least in his own mind to achieve this understanding of creationist arguments, and in the process we also learned more about evolution. It would be a shame if he's lost this skill and taken to just dogmatically asserting his beliefs).
Strong feelings and personal confidence often have little correlation to actual truth. Even if you believe strongly that you are right, or perhaps especially if you have strong beliefs, if you are going to engage in debate you should understand the "devil's advocate" arguments of your opponents. If you think it's a waste of time to understand arguments in favor of religion, asteroidal chocolate, or anything else that you find credible or incredible, you should not be surprised that (a) you'll be very bad at convincing people who don't share your beliefs to share them, and (b) if you do turn out to be wrong, you won't understand why you are wrong. It's fair to say that for the chocolate cake, since nobody believes it, there is nobody that needs convincing, and it's also fair to not be concerned about the risk that one's opinion about it is wrong. It's also reasonable to ignore religion and creationism for the second reason. But if you want to convince a religious person to be an atheist, or a creationist to be an evolutionist, you'll be far better off understanding their arguments first, and you might well arrive at more accurate forms of atheism and evolution in the process.
From an article by Michael Ruse:
Michael Ruse doesn't get it.
When I was a kid and my father was teaching me about skepticism -
- he used the example of the hypothesis: "There is an object one foot across in the asteroid belt composed entirely of chocolate cake." You would have to search the whole asteroid belt to disprove this hypothesis. But though this hypothesis is very hard to disprove, there aren't good arguments for it.
And the child-Eliezer asked his mind to search for arguments that there was a chocolate cake in the asteroid belt. Lo, his mind returned the reply: "Since the asteroid-belt-chocolate-cake is one of the classic examples of a bad hypothesis, if anyone ever invents a time machine, some prankster will toss a chocolate cake back into the 20th-century asteroid belt, making it true all along."
Thus - at a very young age - I discovered that my mind could, if asked, invent arguments for anything.
I know people whose sanity has been destroyed by this discovery. They conclude that Reason can be used to argue for anything. And so there is no point in arguing that God doesn't exist, because you could just as well argue that God does exist. Nothing left but to believe whatever you want.
Having given up, they develop whole philosophies of self-inflation to make their despair seem Deeply Wise. If they catch you trying to use Reason, they will smile and pat you on the head and say, "Oh, someday you'll discover that you can argue for anything."
Perhaps even now, my readers are thinking, "Uh-oh, Eliezer can rationalize anything, that's not a good sign."
But you know... being mentally agile doesn't always doom you to disaster. I mean, you might expect that it would. Yet sometimes practice turns out to be different from theory.
Rationalization came too easily to me. It was visibly just a game.
If I had been less imaginative and more easily stumped - if I had not found myself able to argue for any proposition no matter how bizarre - then perhaps I would have confused the activity with thinking.
But I could argue even for chocolate cake in the asteroid belt. It wasn't even difficult; my mind coughed up the argument immediately. It was very clear that this was fake thinking and not real thinking. I never for a moment confused the game with real life. I didn't start thinking there might really be a chocolate cake in the asteroid belt.
You might expect that any child with enough mental agility to come up with arguments for anything, would surely be doomed. But intelligence doesn't always do so much damage as you might think. In this case, it just set me up, at a very early age, to distinguish "reasoning" from "rationalizing". They felt different.
Perhaps I'm misremembering... but it seems to me that, even at that young age, I looked at my mind's amazing clever argument for a time-traveling chocolate cake, and thought: I've got to avoid doing that.
I picked up an intuitive sense that real thinking was that which could force you into an answer whether you liked it or not, and fake thinking was that which could argue for anything.
This was an incredibly valuable lesson -
- which was one of the major drivers behind my break with Judaism. The elaborate arguments and counterarguments of ancient rabbis, looked like the kind of fake thinking I did to argue that there was chocolate cake in the asteroid belt. Only the rabbis had forgotten it was a game, and were actually taking it seriously.
Believe me, I understand the Traditional argument behind Devil's Advocacy. By arguing the opposing position, you increase your mental flexibility. You shake yourself out of your old shoes. You get a chance to gather evidence against your position, instead of arguing for it. You rotate things around, see them from a different viewpoint. Turnabout is fair play, so you turn about, to play fair.
Perhaps this is what Michael Rose was thinking, when he accused Richard Dawkins of "moral rigidity".
I surely don't mean to teach people to say: "Since I believe in fairies, I ought not to expect to find any good arguments against their existence, therefore I will not search because the mental effort has a low expected utility." That comes under the heading of: If you want to shoot your foot off, it is never the least bit difficult to do so.
Maybe there are some stages of life, or some states of mind, in which you can be helped by trying to play Devil's Advocate. Students who have genuinely never thought of trying to search for arguments on both sides of an issue, may be helped by the notion of "Devil's Advocate".
But with anyone in this state of mind, I would sooner begin by teaching them that policy debates should not appear one-sided. There is no expectation against having strong arguments on both sides of a policy debate; single actions have multiple consequences. If you can't think of strong arguments against your most precious favored policies, or strong arguments for policies that you hate but which other people endorse, then indeed, you very likely have a problem that could be described as "failing to see the other points of view".
You, dear reader, are probably a sophisticated enough reasoner that if you manage to get yourself stuck in an advanced rut, dutifully playing Devil's Advocate won't get you out of it. You'll just subconsciously avoid any Devil's arguments that make you genuinely nervous, and then congratulate yourself for doing your duty. People at this level need stronger medicine. (So far I've only covered medium-strength medicine.)
If you can bring yourself to a state of real doubt and genuine curiosity, there is no need for Devil's Advocacy. You can investigate the contrary position because you think it might be really genuinely true, not because you are playing games with time-traveling chocolate cakes. If you cannot find this trace of true doubt within yourself, can merely playing Devil's Advocate help you?
I have no trouble thinking of arguments for why the Singularity won't happen for another 50 years. With some effort, I can make a case for why it might not happen in 100 years. I can also think of plausible-sounding scenarios in which the Singularity happens in two minutes, i.e., someone ran a covert research project and it is finishing right now. I can think of plausible arguments for 10-year, 20-year, 30-year, and 40-year timeframes.
This is not because I am good at playing Devil's Advocate and coming up with clever arguments. It's because I really don't know. A true doubt exists in each case, and I can follow my doubt to find the source of a genuine argument. Or if you prefer: I really don't know, because I can come up with all these plausible arguments.
On the other hand, it is really hard for me to visualize the proposition that there is no kind of mind substantially stronger than a human one. I have trouble believing that the human brain, which just barely suffices to run a technological civilization that can build a computer, is also the theoretical upper limit of effective intelligence. I cannot argue effectively for that, because I do not believe it. Or if you prefer, I do not believe it, because I cannot argue effectively for it. If you want that idea argued, find someone who really believes it. Since a very young age, I've been endeavoring to get away from those modes of thought where you can argue for just anything.
In the state of mind and stage of life where you are trying to distinguish rationality from rationalization, and trying to tell the difference between weak arguments and strong arguments, Devil's Advocate cannot lead you to unfake modes of reasoning. Its only power is that it may perhaps show you the fake modes which operate equally well on any side, and tell you when you are uncertain.
There is no chess grandmaster who can play only black, or only white; but in the battles of Reason, a soldier who fights with equal strength on any side has zero force.
That's what Richard Dawkins understands that Michael Ruse doesn't - that Reason is not a game.
Added: Brandon argues that Devil's Advocacy is most importantly a social rather than individual process, which aspect I confess I wasn't thinking about.