If we are trading in analogies, then I'd liken Robin's argument to noticing that the shoe size of the last four Miss World winners decreased each year, and then predicting the shoe size of next year's winner on that basis. Also it turns out that his measure of shoe size is based on measuring the shoe size of other members of the participant's country - and that he skipped over the 2006 competition for some reason.

Are the judges really preferring smaller feet? Maybe, but the evidence seems rather tenuous.