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taryneast comments on Surface Analogies and Deep Causes - Less Wrong
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As I understand it, this is an example of the fallacy of the excluded middle.
After all, I could make up my own comparison case: Which is more likely: Y has properties #1 through #100 as well, or Y just has property #1 ? and come to the opposite conclusion that you have drawn.
The point being that you have to compare the case "Y has properties 1 through 100" with all other potential possible values of Y. and there's no reason that you happen to necessarily have in your hands a Y that is actually also an X.