Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on Belief in Self-Deception - Less Wrong

51 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 05 March 2009 03:20PM

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Tags: antitheism self_deception religion belief_in_belief the_dark_side nonstandard_toolbox

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Comment author: Olle 05 March 2009 09:11:13PM 0 points [-]

I believe the following five things.

(1) Barcelona will not win the Champions League.

(2) Manchester U will not win the Champions League.

(3) Chelsea will not win the Champions League.

(4) Liverpool will not win the Champions League.

(5) I falsely believe one of the statements (1), (2), (3) and (4).

This seems to me like a reasonable counterexample to Wittgenstein's doctrine.

Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 06 March 2009 12:07:51AM 8 points [-]

You need to work with probabilities, and then make statements about your expected Bayes-score instead of truth or falsity; then you'll be consistent. I have a post on this but I can't remember what it's called.

Comment author: Z_M_Davis 06 March 2009 12:57:01AM 8 points [-]

"Qualitatively Confused."

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