I think the degree to which you can know tomorrow will be like today is determined by how well you understand the object in question, not by the number of past times it's been that way.

For example you know your dog will bark and not quack tomorrow to the extent that you understand the workings of his voice box, not necessarily because he has barked the whole time you've known him (though that is evidence also). The more levels down you understand his voice box the surer you can be, because each level down eliminates more possibilities.