Rafe_Champion comments on Probability is Subjectively Objective - Less Wrong

22 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 14 July 2008 09:16AM

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Comment author: Rafe_Champion 15 July 2008 09:00:19PM 0 points [-]

A couple of comments on a very big topic. 1. There is a fascinating history of ideas about the objective contents of thought, starting with the Austrians Brentano and Meinong, running through analytical philosophy (Russell and Moore) and phenomenology (Husserl and Heidegger), and also through evolutionary epistemology (Popper and Munz). http://www.the-rathouse.com/EvenMoreAustrianProgram/EMAThreeAustrianStrands.html

2. On the Bayesian appraisal of theories, with reference to the Duhem problem, it seems that Bayes gives a good result when there is only one major theory in the picture but is not so good when help is most needed, that is to judge between two serious rival theories. http://www.the-rathouse.com/Theses/Duhem-QuineInBayesNewExperimentalism.html