Recently I did some probability calculations, starting with "made-up" numbers, and updating using Bayes' Rule, and the result was that something would likely happen which my gut said most firmly would absolutely not, never, ever, happen.

I told myself that my probability assignments must have been way off, or I must have made an error somewhere. After all, my gut couldn't possibly be so mistaken.

The thing happened, by the way.

This is one reason why I agree with RI, and disagree with Eliezer.