michael_vassar3 comments on When (Not) To Use Probabilities - Less Wrong

28 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 23 July 2008 10:58AM

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Comment author: michael_vassar3 24 July 2008 08:39:10PM 3 points [-]

I think that Robin was saying that anchoring, not the arbitrariness of starting points, is the big problem for transitioning from qualitative to quantitative thinking. You can make up numbers and so long as you update them well you get to the right place, but if you anchor too much against movement from your starting point but not against movement towards it you never get to an accurate destination.