Caledonian2 comments on No Logical Positivist I - Less Wrong
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That isn't the point. Sincere and intelligent people have been coming up with novel ideas on important topics long before scientific methodology was even a sparkle in Galileo's eye.
Most of those ideas were worthless. Most modern ideas are worthless, too. The question is: how good were they at distinguishing the worthy ideas from the worthless ones? The sheer number of recently-discarded fields, much less ideas, should make it clear how well the ancients discerned the gold from the dross.
What's the signal-to-noise ratio? How much care is taken to ensure that people aren't deluding themselves?