Are you're rationally taking into account the biasing effect your heartfelt hopes exert on the set of hypotheses raised to your concious attention as you conspire to save the world?

Surely you're not giving Eliezer enough credit, RI - he's put a lot of thought into this subject.

There's really no way to eliminate one's own biases without recourse to objective and impersonal tests, of course. You can't identify your own mistakes with armchair theorizing. But you have to give him credit for effort.