Roko has a point there.

I like "AI IS HARD. IT'S REALLY FRICKING HARD." But that is an argument that could cut you in several ways. Anything that has never been done is really hard. Can you tell those degrees of really hard beforehand? 105 years ago, airplanes were really hard; today, most of us could get the fundamentals of designing one with a bit of effort. The problem of human flight has not changed, but its perceived difficulty has. Is AI that kind of problem, the one that is really hard until suddenly it is not, and everyone will have a half-dozen AIs around the house in fifty years? Is AI hard like time travel? Like unaided human flight? Like proving Fermat's Last Theorem?

It seems like those CAPS will turn on you at some point in the discussion.