MZ, if you want to prove your claim, start creating a data series of your probabilities on these events, forecasts which you create independently of the market forecasts to which you want to compare. Then with enough data on your and market forecasts, we could evaluate their relative accuracy. Every time we've done that in the past the market has done at least as well as the the other forecast source.
I applaud the SEC's courageous move to ban short selling. Isn't that brilliant? I wonder why they didn't think of that during the Great Depression.
However, I feel that this valiant effort does not go far enough.
All selling of stocks should be banned. Once you buy a stock, you have to hold it forever.
Sure, this might make the market a little less liquid. But once stock prices can only go up, we'll all be rich!
Or maybe we should just try something simpler: pass a law making it illegal for stock prices to go down.