Qiaochu_Yuan comments on How Many LHC Failures Is Too Many? - Less Wrong

16 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 20 September 2008 09:38PM

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Comment author: CAE_Jones 02 May 2013 09:27:13PM 3 points [-]

Am I misunderstanding, missing a joke, or did the overwhelming majority here consider the probability that the LHC could destroy the world non-negligible? After reading this article, I wound up looking up articles on collider safety just to make sure I wasn't crazy. My understanding of physics told me that all the talk of LHC-related doomsday scenarios was just some sort of science fiction meme. I was under the impression that artificial black holes would take levels of energy comparable to the big bang, and a micro black hole would be pretty low risk even then. (Reading the wikipedia article further, I see that FHI was involved in the raising of concerns over the LHC, which is the closest thing to an explanation for this discussion I've found so far.)

I'm actually kinda concerned about this, since if the discussion on this page is taking LHC risk seriously, then either I or LW had serious problems modeling reality. This wouldn't be in the category of "weird local culture"; cryonics involves a lot of unknowns and most LWers notice this, and UFAI actually makes much more sense as existential risk, since an unfriendly transhuman intelligence would actually be dangerous... but there were plenty of knowns that could be used to predict the LHC's risk, and they all pointed toward the risk being infinitecimal.

If, on the other hand, this was some bit of humor playing on pop-sci memes, used to play with the anthropic principal and quantum suicide, then oops.

Comment author: Qiaochu_Yuan 02 May 2013 09:32:19PM *  5 points [-]

The question "how many LHC failures is too many?" is the question "how negligible was your prior on the LHC being dangerous, really?" Is it low enough to ignore 10 failures? 100? 1000? Do you have enough confidence in your understanding of physics to defy the data that many times?

Comment author: CAE_Jones 02 May 2013 10:01:30PM 5 points [-]

Ok. Somehow it came across as taking the idea of LHC risk more seriously than is rational. I'm not sure why it didn't feel hypothetical enough (I should have been tipped off when Eliezer didn't mention the obvious part where the LHC would lose funding if the failures became too numerous. I'd consider 1000 LHC failures indicative that my model of how scientists get funding is broken before the LHC actually being a doomsday weapon.).

Comment author: ESRogs 04 May 2013 11:25:04PM 1 point [-]

I'd consider 1000 LHC failures indicative that my model of how scientists get funding is broken before the LHC actually being a doomsday weapon.

Not both?