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CAE_Jones comments on How Many LHC Failures Is Too Many? - Less Wrong
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The idea is that the risk is infinitesimal but you want to put an approximate number on that using a method of imaginary updates - how much imaginary evidence would it take to change your mind?
That makes sense. I made a similar misinterpretation on a different post around the same time I read this one, so putting the two together makes me pretty confident I was not thinking at my best yesterday. (Either that, or my best is worse than I usually believe.)