simon2 comments on How Many LHC Failures Is Too Many? - Less Wrong

16 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 20 September 2008 09:38PM

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Comment author: simon2 21 September 2008 05:41:05PM 0 points [-]

Allan, I am of course aware of that (actually, it would probably take time, but even if the annihilation were instantaneous the argument would not be affected).

There are 4 possibilities:

1. The LHC would destroy Earth, but it fails to operate 2. The LHC destroys Earth 3. The LHC would not destroy Earth, but it fails anyway 4. The LHC works and does not destroy Earth

The fact that conditional on survival possibility 2 must not have happened has no effect on the relative probabilities of possibility 1 and possibility 3.