Benja_Fallenstein comments on How Many LHC Failures Is Too Many? - Less Wrong

16 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 20 September 2008 09:38PM

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Comment author: Benja_Fallenstein 21 September 2008 09:28:47PM 3 points [-]

The intuition behind the math: If the LHC would not destroy the world, then on date X, a very small number of Everett branches of Earth have the LHC non-working due to a string of random failures, and most Everett branches have the LHC happily chugging ahead. If the LHC would destroy the world, a very small number of Everett branches of Earth have the LHC non-working due to a string of random failures -- and most Everett branches have Earth munched up into a black hole.

The very small number of Everett branches that have the LHC non-working due to a string of random failures is the same in both cases.

Thus, if all you know is that you are in an Everett branch in which the LHC is non-working due to a string of random failures, you have no information about whether the other Everett branches have the LHC happily chugging ahead, or dead.