Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on How Many LHC Failures Is Too Many? - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (130)
Zis would seems to explains it.
(I use -> to indicate logical implication and => to indicate a step in a proof, or otherwise implication outside the formal system - I do understand this to be conventional.)
Not particularly. I use 4 but with P(W|S) = P(W) which renders it valid. (We're not talking about two side-by-side universes, but about prior probabilities on physical law plus a presumption of survival.)
This could only reflect uncertainty that anthropic reasoning was valid. If you were certain anthropic reasoning were valid (I'm sure not!) then you would make no such update. In practice, after surviving a few hundred rounds of quantum suicide, would further survivals really seem to call for alternative explanations?