prase comments on Horrible LHC Inconsistency - Less Wrong

17 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 22 September 2008 03:12AM

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Comment author: prase 22 September 2008 07:30:27PM 3 points [-]

The problem with looking at how many doomsayers were successful in history is that it completely overlooks the concerned hypothesis itself. Doomsday prophecies are not all equally probable. If we constrain our attention to prophecies of the destruction of the whole Earth (which seems most relevant for this case), the rate of success is obviously 0.