We do ten experiments. A scientist observes the results, constructs a
theory consistent with them, and uses it to predict the results of the
next ten. We do them and the results fit his predictions. A second
scientist now constructs a theory consistent with the results of all
twenty experiments.
The two theories give different predictions for the next experiment. Which do we believe? Why?
One of the commenters links to Overcoming Bias, but as of 11PM on Sep 28th, David's blog's time, no one has given the exact answer that I would have given. It's interesting that a question so basic has received so many answers.
We have two theories that explain the all the available data - and this is Overcoming Bias - so how come only a tiny number of people have mentioned the possibility of using Occam's razor? Surely that must be part of any sensible response.
David D. Friedman asks:
One of the commenters links to Overcoming Bias, but as of 11PM on Sep 28th, David's blog's time, no one has given the exact answer that I would have given. It's interesting that a question so basic has received so many answers.