Aron comments on Intrade and the Dow Drop - Less Wrong

2 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 01 October 2008 03:12AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (13)

Sort By: Old

You are viewing a single comment's thread.

Comment author: Aron 01 October 2008 04:50:48AM 0 points [-]

Not overwhelmingly on-topic?

So we have a small minority of financial wizards and their supporting frameworks convincing everyone that they can take an overwhelmingly, inhumanly complex system and quantify the risk of ALL scenarios. Then when this is proven out as hubris, the broader system appears to exhibit cascading failures that impact direct and non-direct participants. The given leaders with vast resources could essentially flip a coin on the post-hoc solution, biased by the proximity of their next election.

So yes, MBS's aren't active agents with goals, but their caretakers with profit-maximizing motives are. Should we have better engineered the macro-system or the mortgage backed securities?

Maybe we need a Friendly Mortgage Securitization project.