wedrifid comments on Use the Try Harder, Luke - Less Wrong
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An excerpt from a likely-never-to-be-finished essay:
--Manuel Blum, "Advice to a Beginning Graduate Student"
Not credibly and not with the actual information content that the brother's utterance provides. That leaves the question of whether and in what circumstances it is instrumentally rational to self deceive in the direction of optimism bias (or optimism regarding the relative merit of rechecking the low branches for more fruit instead of climbing higher). Some considerations: