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Zubon comments on Beyond the Reach of God - Less Wrong

68 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 04 October 2008 03:42PM

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Comment author: Zubon 04 October 2008 06:00:56PM 1 point [-]

With all the sci fi brought up here, I think we are familiar with Hitler's Time Travel Exemption Act.

Ian C., that is half the philosophy of Epicurus in a nutshell: there are no gods, there is no afterlife, so the worst case scenario is not subject to the whims of petulant deities.

If you want a sufficient response to optimism, consider: is the probability that you will persist forever 1? If not, it is 0. If there is any probability of your annihilation, no matter how small, you will not survive for an infinite amount of time. That is what happens in an infinite amount of time: everything possible. If all your backup plans can fail at once, even at P=1/(3^^^3), that number will come of eventually with infinite trials.

Comment author: faul_sname 11 September 2012 07:33:30AM 5 points [-]

Not necessarily. If the risk decreases faster than an inverse function (ie. if the risk is less than 1/n for each event, where n is the number of events), there can be a probability between 0 and 1.