steven comments on Beyond the Reach of God - Less Wrong
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To show that hellish scenarios are worth ignoring, you have to show not only that they're improbable, but also that they're improbable enough to overcome the factor (utility of oblivionish scenario - utility of hellish scenario)/(utility of heavenish scenario - utility of oblivionish scenario), which as far as I can tell could be anywhere between tiny and huge.
As for global totalitarian dictatorships, I doubt they'd last for more than millions of years without something happening to them.