Barry_Kelly comments on Beyond the Reach of God - Less Wrong

66 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 04 October 2008 03:42PM

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Comment author: Barry_Kelly 05 October 2008 06:24:00PM 2 points [-]

Zubon,

"If you want a sufficient response to optimism, consider: is the probability that you will persist forever 1? If not, it is 0."

You're only correct if the probability is constant with respect to time. Consider, however, that some uncertain events have a non-zero probability even if *infinite* time passes. For example, random walks in three dimensions (or more) are not guaranteed to meet their origin again, even over infinite time: