anki --
Throughout the experiment, I regarded "should the AI be let out of the box?" as a question to be seriously asked; but at no point was I on the verge of doing it.

I'm not a fan of making up probability estimates in the absence of statistical data, but my belief that no possible entity could persuade me to do arbitrary things via IRC is conditional on said entity having only physically ordinary sources of information about me. If you're postulating a scenario where the AI has an upload copy of me and something like Jupiter brain hardware to run a zillion experiments on said copy, I don't know what the outcome would be.