If you want to pass yourself off as a real magician/psychic/whatever you do conjuring tricks, you don't do the same trick too often in front of the same audience and if you are in doubt about your ability to repeat the trick you quit while you are ahead. (Or only behind 2 to 3 as the case may be).
Whereas a scientist with a demonstration can and usually will demonstrate it as often as is needed, and publish their method so others can demonstrate it.
These considerations lead me to strongly suspect that Eliezer's method is more like an unreliable conjuring trick, that would seem much less impressive if you knew how it was done, than it is like a reliable scientific method.
It's still an excellent demonstration that the problem of keeping an AI in a box is far less trivial than it first appears to be, but I would not hold out much hope of ever seeing the transcripts, nor of there being anything astounding in them if you do.
Performing before the same audience means that they are theoretically able to gather additional evidence everytime. Since (if both AI and Gatekeeper uphold their NDA) the only information open to the public is a yes/no, no gathering is possible.
Some of you have expressed the opinion that the AI-Box Experiment doesn't seem so impossible after all. That's the spirit! Some of you even think you know how I did it.
There are folks aplenty who want to try being the Gatekeeper. You can even find people who sincerely believe that not even a transhuman AI could persuade them to let it out of the box, previous experiments notwithstanding. But finding anyone to play the AI - let alone anyone who thinks they can play the AI and win - is much harder.
Me, I'm out of the AI game, unless Larry Page wants to try it for a million dollars or something.
But if there's anyone out there who thinks they've got what it takes to be the AI, leave a comment. Likewise anyone who wants to play the Gatekeeper.
Matchmaking and arrangements are your responsibility.
Make sure you specify in advance the bet amount, and whether the bet will be asymmetrical. If you definitely intend to publish the transcript, make sure both parties know this. Please note any other departures from the suggested rules for our benefit.
I would ask that prospective Gatekeepers indicate whether they (1) believe that no human-level mind could persuade them to release it from the Box and (2) believe that not even a transhuman AI could persuade them to release it.
As a courtesy, please announce all Experiments before they are conducted, including the bet, so that we have some notion of the statistics even if some meetings fail to take place. Bear in mind that to properly puncture my mystique (you know you want to puncture it), it will help if the AI and Gatekeeper are both verifiably Real People<tm>.
"Good luck," he said impartially.