Paul_Murray comments on Crisis of Faith - Less Wrong

57 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 10 October 2008 10:08PM

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Comment author: Paul_Murray 16 October 2008 07:39:00AM 2 points [-]

[quote]I became a Christian because I was a Bayesian first. I know there are others like me. I saw and experienced evidence that caused me to positively update my belief.

Now if you don't like that argument, then please tell me how can anyone become an atheist via Bayesian updating? Can your posterior really go to a point mass at zero (belief in God)? If so, please tell me what prior you were using. If not, please tell me how you define atheism.
[/quote]
And how can *your* probability go to one? You erect a straw man, sir. My probablility that there is a god is not exactly zero, any more than yours is exactly one. If God were to send an actual angel down, right now, and make my dinner vanish with his magic stick (it's in Genesis, somewhere) then that would shift my probability.

But as things stand, I am confident that there are no gods.