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hannahelisabeth comments on Dark Side Epistemology - Less Wrong
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The probability is the prior times the evidence ratio, so the higher the prior probability, the less evidence you need. If there's a lottery with one million numbers, and you have no evidence for anything, you'll think there's a 0.0001% chance of it getting 839772 exactly, a 50% chance of it getting 500000 or less, and a 99.9999% chance of it getting something other than 839772. Thus, you can be pretty sure it won't land on 839772 even without evidence.
I think knowing a prior constitutes evidence. If you know that the lottery has one million numbers, that is a piece of evidence.
You need a prior to take evidence into account. If the prior is evidence, then what is the prior?
Hm... You make a good point. I'm not sure I understand this conceptually well enough to have any sort of coherent response.