I've seen many claims that deceiving oneself optimistically is a prerequisite for success. In particular, it is claimed that most successful people were initially excessively optimistic about their prospects for success. Without this excessive optimism, success is claimed to be unlikely. I notice that Eliezer is indeed optimistic about his prospects for success in creating friendly AI, however he has a rationalization for why his optimism is justified. Many critics here have expressed skepticism about his justifications. One risk is that without conscious acceptance of the need for self-deception in this area, the perceived urgency of the need for success leads to unconscious self-deception. Which is better: conscious self-deception (assuming that's even meaningful), or unconscious?