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Jubilee comments on Ethics Notes - Less Wrong
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Because if you're considering disobeying orders, it is presumably because you think you WILL be vindicated by events (regardless of the actual likelihood of that transpiring). Therefore, punishing only people who turn out to be wrong fails to sufficiently discourage anybody who actually should be discouraged :P
Very few people disobey orders because they think they will be vindicated by events. It is far more common for people to disobey orders for purposes of personal gain or out of laziness, fear, or other considerations. The person, especially the soldier, who disobeys a direct order from recognized authority on either moral or tactical grounds is an uncommon scenario.