>This is incidental to the topic, but what do you mean >by “controlled shutdown”, as distinct from “shutdown”?

My guess: the now-malfunctioning AGI is in charge of critical infrastructure upon which the lives of O(3^^^3) humans depend at the time it detects that it is about to self-deceive. Presumably a "controlled shutdown" would be some kind of orderly relinquishing of its responsibilities so that as few of those 0(3^^^3) humans are harmed in the process.

Of course, that assumes that such a shutdown is actually possible at that time. What guarantees could be provided to ensure that a non-future-destroying controlled shutdown of an AGI would be feasible at any point in time?