As with jsalvati's comment, upon reading this post I was convinced that either I was hallucinating, that almost the entirety of this post had appeared elsewhere before, or that I've read so much of Eliezer's writing that I'm anticipating his arguments in detail before he makes them.

Fortunately, it turns out that the second (and least disturbing) option was correct, in that a substantial amount of this post already existed at: [link deleted]

Not that I'm complaining, but it was seriously bothering me that I knew I'd heard this stuff before, but Google said it hadn't previously been posted on Overcoming Bias, and I was starting to doubt my sanity...