wedrifid comments on Mundane Magic - Less Wrong

102 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 31 October 2008 04:00PM

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Comment author: shokwave 19 December 2010 12:33:19PM 10 points [-]

Almost nothing gives "absolutely zero evidence"

Evidence smaller than a human brain can process - where counting it as evidence would cause a brain to overestimate the evidence's value - seems like it would be a case where it's practical to consider it absolutely zero evidence.

Comment author: wedrifid 19 December 2010 02:57:04PM *  6 points [-]

Once you have redefined "absolutely zero evidence" to mean "too small for it to be worthwhile for humans to consider it" precisely what language can you use to describe things that, you know, aren't evidence?

No, throwing in "absolutely zero" here changes it from "not technically true" to simply muddled thinking about how evidence works.

Incidentally even for human purposes this counts as evidence. Not sufficient evidence to even consider the magic hypothesis outright. But if a consistent trend occurs with respect to coin tossing then that hypothesis must eventually be considered. For example if anyone who says 'abracadabra' is suddenly able to rig coin tosses reliably even if they could barely even toss a coin at all before then that is clear evidence that something weird is going on. If you investigate the phenonemon 10,000 times with randomly selected 7 year olds (or even adults) and it happens each time then is strong evidence that something that can be described as magic is occurring. And every single instance is obviously weak evidence. "Absolute zero" is just way off.

Comment author: shokwave 19 December 2010 03:17:49PM 1 point [-]

Once you have redefined "absolutely zero evidence" to mean "too small for it to be worthwhile for humans to consider it" precisely what language can you use to describe things that, you know, aren't evidence?

True. The balancing concern is that, in the case of "too small to be worthwhile", we want people to not consider it, and there are strong biases that make people consider it a la but there's still a chance! If anything less than "absolutely zero evidence" lets people consider evidence - and overestimating the evidence is worse than underestimating it - then it is preferred language. In that case, it would share the same language as things that aren't evidence at all.

Comment author: wedrifid 19 December 2010 03:32:25PM 1 point [-]

The balancing concern is that, in the case of "too small to be worthwhile", we want people to not consider it, and there are strong biases that make people consider it a la but there's still a chance! If anything less than "absolutely zero evidence" lets people consider evidence - and overestimating the evidence is worse than underestimating it - then it is preferred language.

Controlling behavior by removing the ability to express concepts. Lets call this new language 'newspeak'. :)

Comment author: shokwave 19 December 2010 03:38:38PM 11 points [-]

If newspeak increases my utility in dealing with certain agents, I desire to speak in newspeak to them. If newspeak decreases my utility in dealing with certain agents, I desire to speak normally to them. Let me not become attached to the perception of newspeak as intrinsically evil.

Comment author: wedrifid 19 December 2010 03:56:02PM 0 points [-]

I too do all sorts of things with other agents that do not necessarily involve accurate communication. Violence and dirty talk spring to mind as a couple of examples.

Comment author: nshepperd 19 December 2010 03:47:48PM 0 points [-]

How about "less evidence than X", where X is something ridiculously silly? It seems like it might have the same psychological effects, in which case it would be preferable.

Comment author: shokwave 19 December 2010 04:15:40PM 2 points [-]

I feel strangely certain that if we started countering "my coin flips coming up mostly heads is evidence of my magic!" with "less evidence for magic than your capacity to continue breathing is", the kind of person in question would simply write books about how breathing is obviously magical in nature.