Coming back to this post, I don't understand what Eliezer means by "rationality" here. The game described isn't the log-score game, and the input sequence is described as uncomputable ("truly random"), so I guess Solomonoff induction will also fare asymptotically worse than a human who always bets on blue. Does anyone have an idealized model of a rational agent that can "bring itself to believe that the situation is one in which it cannot predict"?