@A Pickup Artist

I got the point of Eliezer's post, and I don't see why I'm wrong. Could you tell me more specifically than "for the reasons stated" why I'm wrong? And while you're at it, explain to me your optimal strategy in AnneC's variation of the game (you're shot if you get one wrong), assuming you can't effectively cheat.

(Incidentally, and somewhat off-topic, there's a beautiful puzzle with a similar setup — see "Names in Boxes" on the first page of http://math.dartmouth.edu/~pw/solutions.pdf. The solutions are included, but try to figure it out for yourself. It's worth it.)

I'll concede the point on routines. Since so much of human interaction is scripted anyway (where are you from? what do you do? etc.), the difference between using canned material and not is hard to pin down. I'd love to see a study done on the subject, but it would be devilishly difficult to design a good one.