It is a counterintuitive idea that the optimal strategy can be to think lawfully, even under conditions of uncertainty.

Nicely put. I can think of examples where you should think chaotically in order to solve a chaotic problem - but they're very convoluted, unatural examples.

One thing still niggles me; the fact that rationalists should win. Looking around sucessful people, I see more rationalists than the average - but not much more. Our society is noisy, yes, but rationalists should still win much more often than they do. Rationalists seem more skilled at avoiding losing, than at actually winning.