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Stuart_Armstrong comments on Worse Than Random - Less Wrong

25 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 11 November 2008 07:01PM

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Comment author: Stuart_Armstrong 12 November 2008 11:09:34AM 2 points [-]

Anyone care to work out exactly how much better off 0-0-0-0 is than a random set in this case? The probability of success at each cycle goes up to 1/9999 from 1/10000 (after the first cycle).

It's obvious to those who comprehend the emergent behavior that interest rates have been set way below market rates, for too long, and that is the cause of the current crisis. By "comprehend the emergent behavior" do you mean that you have a vague intuitive feel for this, or that you have the equations relating interest rates to other factors, along with enough mathematical theory to make specific quatitative predictions? If you (or people like you who "comprehend the emergent behavior") did not make a lot of money out of the current crisis, then your statement is wrong. Explanations after the fact are simply stories.