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Stuart_Armstrong comments on Worse Than Random - Less Wrong

25 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 11 November 2008 07:01PM

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Comment author: Stuart_Armstrong 13 November 2008 02:18:06PM 1 point [-]

Dear Brian,

Sorry if I was overly brusque in my response. you have obviously given the subject more thought than I gave you credit for.

The line you wrote here is the critical one: BTW, that theory predicted the Great Depression before the fact, and this crash before the fact. It also predicted the existence of stagflation before the fact.

Where were these predictions? Did they represent a majority view of Austrian School economics? How is their false positive, false negative score? (basically, I'm asking for a statistical survey of Austrian school economics track record; that seems to be the minimum requirement to endorse the statement above). If their track record is so demonstrably superior, someone should have done such a survey.

Because for the moment a simple "classical economics + power law of random fluctuations (possibly giving way somewhat to a gaussian distribution for rare events)" seems a much more economical theory fitting the data (and yes, those were my economic opinions before the crash; I didn't act on it, because I have no money to spare :-).