Now, I should clarify that I don't really expect Moore's Law to continue forever. Obviously the more you extrapolate it, the shakier the prediction becomes. But there is no point at which some other prediction method becomes more reliable. There is no time in the future about which we can say "we will deviate from the graph in this way", because we have no way to see more clearly than the graph.

I don't see any systematic way to resolve this disagreement either, and I think that's because there isn't any. This shouldn't come as a surprise -- if I had a systematic method of resolving all disagreements about the future, I'd be a lot richer than I am! At the end of the day, there's no substitute for putting our heads down, getting on with the work, and seeing who ends up being right.

But this is also an example of why I don't have much truck with Aumann's Agreement Theorem. I'm not disputing the mathematics of course, but I think cases where its assumptions apply, are the exception rather than the rule.