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Tim_Tyler comments on The Weak Inside View - Less Wrong
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Publicly not knowing earns humility points - save them and spend them wisely.
However, you're an expert, and people want to know what you think!
So, imagine you have a million valuable tokens, and have to spread them over the next 100 years. Imagine also that the value of the tokens gradually runs into diminishing returns as you get more of them - which makes you somewhat risk-averse. Imagine also that your longevity is independently assured. When some significant-machine-intelligence-milestone is reached, you get the tokens that you previously placed on that year. How would you spread the tokens?